The last time Indiana advanced beyond the first round in consecutive postseasons was 2013 and 2014. The last time Cleveland did it without LeBron James on the roster was back in 1992 and 1993.
Yet here they are, both in the Eastern Conference semifinals for the second straight yet, the Cavs hoping to go a step further this time while the Pacers are aiming for another trip to the conference finals.
There isn’t much of a sample size to go on from their 2024-25 season series. Sure, the two Central Division rivals played the standard-issue four times, but only two of those were fully legit: They split a home-and-home pair of games on Jan. 12 and 14, each winning on the other’s court.
The last two meetings came in the dwindling days of the regular season, by which time the Cavaliers had all but shut down in anticipation of the postseason and the Pacers did likewise in game No. 82.
There’s not a lot to go on from recent playoff clashes, because only one rotation player remains – Indiana center Myles Turner – from their back-to-back first-round meetings in 2017 and 2018.
Top storyline
The end game. Don’t leave early, don’t flip around if you aren’t wowed by what you see through the first three quarters. Because these are two of the NBA’s best late-game teams. Cleveland averaged more fourth-quarter points (29.8) than any other team, but Indiana was right behind (29.3). The two clubs flipped positions when it came to shooting in the final quarter – 50.5% by the Pacers, 48.7% by the Cavs.
Indiana went 5-1 in overtime games and was 24-14 in “clutch” games (5 points or less with five minutes or fewer). Cleveland? Even better at 26-12, good enough the Cavs only twice went to OT.
Keep your eyes on
Donovan Mitchell in Game 1. Until Cleveland’s opener against Miami in the first round, only one player in NBA playoff history, Michael Jordan, ever had strung together seven Game 1 performances of 30+ points. Mitchell matched Jordan’s streak on April 20 against the Heat and has a shot now to break it.
It’s worth noting that the Cleveland guard’s career scoring average (27.8) ranks seventh all time. Certainly the Cavaliers welcome Mitchell’s quick starts – they are 21-1 in winning series when they take Game 1.
1 more thing to watch for each team
For Cavaliers: Indiana’s Rick Carlisle has a deep rotation, with seven guys who averaged more than 10 points per game. Cleveland’s Kenny Atkinson might have even more options and configurations available, with 10 men who averaged at least 19 minutes, six double-digit scorers and five who canned 100 or more 3-pointers. The playoffs historically are a time when coaches tighten rotations, but when you have as many implements in your Leatherman as these two coaches do, why not let the situations decide?
For Pacers: Thirteen NBA players, out of a sampling of about a quarter of the league’s population, responded anonymously to a national sports Web site and hung on Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton the “most overrated” label. A forensic breakdown of those ballots would be interesting to see how many of those catty respondents are on teams that still are playing this spring. The Pacers aren’t confused about how valuable Haliburton is to their aspirations.
He and Andrew Nembhard should provide a fascinating duel against Cleveland’s Mitchell and Darius Garland. And while Haliburton struggled with his shot against the Cavs this season, his lifetime splits against the Cavs – 18.4 ppg, 8.6 apg, 49.7% (37.6% on 3s) – are right on his career numbers.
1 key number to know
24.2 — In the first round, the Cavs’ offense scored an amazing 136.2 points per 100 possessions, 24.2 more than the Miami Heat allowed in the regular season (112.0).
Miami had a top-10 defense, and it got absolutely eviscerated as Cleveland swept the series. That differential of 24.2 per 100 from what the Heat allowed in the regular season to the first round is the biggest such differential in the 29 years for which we have play-by-play data.
The Cavs’ effective field-goal percentage of 63.0% was the highest for any team in any playoff series in NBA history. Their free throw percentage of 86.9% was the 15th highest.
— John Schuhmann
The pick
Cavaliers in six. How do you like your momentum? Dominating? Then Cleveland has the edge heading into this series after posting the most lopsided points differential (122) in playoff history. They made the Heat, perennial overachievers, look like the 10th place team they actually were. If you prefer adrenaline-drenched momentum, then the Pacers have an edge. They had to overcome deficits of 20 points in regulation and seven in OT, but got it done in Game 5 against Milwaukee.
That’s great training for what figures to be a much more competitive matchup. Still, those 14 extra victories by the Cavs in the regular season and the homecourt advantage it earned them should get it done for the Cavs.